The methodological paper that we worked on during the Santa Fe Institute workshop last October became available few weeks ago. It presents a suite of most developed methods for identifying early-warnings and provides clear step-by-step examples on how to apply them, in an attempt to offer a protocol to the uninitiated into the field. Most…
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In a recent work with Tony Ives, we showed how modified linear models with time-varying parameters can be used to extract an indicator of instability for a time series that may be drifting towards a regime shift. The paper is available online in Ecosphere. The idea is simply that instead of fitting an autoregressive model…
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Andries is going to present our work in progress in the upcoming Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society in Minneapolis later this month. The talk is part of an interesting session on Climate and Fisheries: Responses of a Socio-Ecological System to Global Change.
The paper we were working on within the EUR-Oceans group for the Baltic Sea just appeared in PLoS One. We show for the first time how different methods for identifying regime shifts can be applied in the marine environment and how they can be interpreted. Hopefully this study will pave the way for same sort of…
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Our paper with Jiangfeng Feng and Egbert van Nes in Theoretical Population Biology just appeared online http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2012.06.003 . We show that predator interference has a dual effect on the dynamics of multispecies predator prey communities: on one hand it increases their dynamical stability (in the sense of leading to stable equilibrium dynamics), while on the other hand it…
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My PhD thesis “Expecting the Unexpected: indicators of resilience as early-warning signals for critical transitions” received the SENSE PhD Award for 2012.
Together with Elisa Benincà from the University of Amsterdam and Chih-hao Hsieh from the National Taiwan University, we are putting together a special session on ECOSYSTEM CHANGE AND PREDICTABILITY OF AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, in coming July during the ASLO Aquatic Sciences meeting in Japan. George Sugihara of Scripps Institution of Oceanography is going to kick start our session…
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Our colloquium and masterclass on ‘Early-warning signals for critical transitions: bridging the gap between theory and practice’ will be hosted by the Dutch Royal Science and Arts Society (KNAW) from 10 to 12 of October 2012 in Amsterdam. We have now opened the registration for the masterclass till the end of August!
I just moved to Sevilla in Spain for a postdoc in the lab of Jordi Bascompte http://bascompte.net/